Dice probabilities are an important thing to know if you are betting on games on a site like Vulkan Vegas, or in land-based casinos. If you understand how dice work, then you will not make random and foolish bets. Today, we will discuss how dice probabilities work and show you how you can use them to your advantage.
What Is Probability?
Probability is a representation of the likelihood of something happening. For example, a die has six sides. If you roll it, only one side will show.
In this case, the probability is one in six or 1/6 = 16.67%. In a die, the probability of each face coming out is always one in six.
The thing is that once you add another die to the mix, the probabilities will change. In addition, the rules or the goal of the game also have an impact on the probability of what you want to achieve.
Let us say that you have to roll two dice. The goal is to land two digits that sum to a total of eight. In this case, what are the probabilities?
The first step is to determine the possible outcomes. In this case, there are 36. Why? There are 36 outcomes because one die has six possible outcomes. Since you have two dice, 6×6 = 36.
The second step is to count the ways by which your desired outcome can happen. In our example, the sum of the two dice should be eight. With this goal, there are different possible configurations of the dice.
Here are the ways to get a sum of eight:
- Die A rolled a 2; die B rolled a 6 = 8
- Die A rolled a 3; die B rolled a 5 = 8
- Die A rolled a 4; die B rolled a 4 = 8
- Die A rolled a 5; die B rolled a 3 = 8
- Die A rolled a 6; die B rolled a 2 = 8
Overall, there are five possible combinations where you can get a sum of eight from the two dice.
The next step is to divide the five ways by the number of possible outcomes. Earlier, we calculated the possible outcomes, and it is 36. So, 5/36 = 13.89%.
What it means is that at every throw, there is a 13.89% chance that you will land a pair whose sum is equal to eight.
As a bettor, you now know that you have a small chance of winning. The probability of hitting that eight is only roughly 14%. The house has an edge of 86%. So, how much money are you willing to risk for this chance of winning?
Dice Secrets to Win on Craps
So, now that you know that the odds or probabilities are not in your favour, is there a way to improve your chances of winning on craps? Yes, there is. We are choosing craps because it is the most famous dice game in a casino.
Craps is really a simple game. There are two dice, and these two dice can only roll 11 different combinations. As a player, you only need to bet one combination that you think that dice will roll. Each combination has its payout ratio.
As discussed earlier, there are 36 possible outcomes in a two-dice throw or roll. Below are the combinations. The first number is the sum of the dice combination, and the second number after the equal throw is the number of ways it can appear. The third set is the dice combination.
- Sum of 2 = 1 way to appear = 1,1
- Sum of 3 = 2 way to appear = 1,2; 2,1
- Sum of 4 = 3 way to appear = 1,3; 3,1; 2,2
- Sum of 5 = 4 way to appear = 1,4; 4,1; 2,3; 3,2
- Sum of 6 = 5 way to appear = 1,5; 5,1; 4,2; 2,4; 3,3
- Sum of 7 = 6 way to appear = 1,6; 6,1; 5,2;2,5; 3,4; 4,3
- Sum of 8 = 5 way to appear = 2,6; 6,2; 5,3; 3,5; 4,4
- Sum of 9 = 4 way to appear = 3,6; 6,3; 5,4; 4,5
- Sum of 10 = 3 way to appear = 4,6; 6,4; 5,5
- Sum of 11 = 2 way to appear = 5,6; 6,5
- Sum of 12 = 1 way to appear = 6,6
So, to get the probability, you simply divide the ways to roll against 36. For example, rolling a sum of five has four ways to appear. In this case, we divide 4 ways by 36 possible outcomes, and we get 0.1111 or 11%.
It means that if you bet on the sum of four, you only have 11% chance of landing that combination. Knowing this, you can say that it is better to put your wager on the combination that has the greatest number of ways to appear, which is craps, or sum of 7, or what people call a pass line bet or craps. In this case, it is just an even money bet. You will win if the combo is a 7 or 11 but lose if the dice rolled 2, 3, or 12.